Are NUFC On A Collision Course To Nothing?

Newcastle are in a League Cup final, going well in the FA Cup and in with a chance of Champions League qualification via the league. So why does everything feel so precarious?

Feb 17, 2025

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What Is Going On?

They say a week is a long time in football, so two weeks must be an eternity. And it is almost two weeks since Newcastle United convincingly beat Arsenal 2-0, in the second leg of their Carabao Cup tie. The 4-0 aggregate success booked a place in the final against Liverpool, at Wembley, in March.

Since then there has been a lot of talk about tickets and the final itself, at least amongst the fanbase. The team, however, has played two matches since the Arsenal game; a hard fought 3-2 win in the FA Cup against feisty League One side Birmingham City followed up by the embarrassing 4-0 defeat that occurred this weekend, away to Manchester City.

Whilst it seems that this team are playing well in the cup competitions, the recent league form is concerning. Here is Newcastle’s record over the last 4 Premier League matches:

Manchester City (a) - Lost 4-0
Fulham (h) - Lost 2-1
Southampton (a) - Won 3-1
Bournemouth (h) - Lost 4-1

A total of 11 goals conceded in 4 games is not a record that is inspiring too much confidence and the run of fixtures to come, ahead of the League Cup Final, remain daunting too.

High flying Nottingham Forest are first up at St James’ this Sunday, followed by a tricky trip to Anfield, to face fellow Carabao finalists Liverpool. Following that there is a home game to Brighton and then an away trip to The London Stadium to face West Ham.

Once again, Newcastle United appear to be on a collision course with a cup final - against a top side - on a bad run of form. The next four Premier League matches are huge for the club, especially if they are serious about ending the 70 year domestic trophy drought. They must find some form from somewhere soon. Heading into that date with destiny at Wembley on March 16th, The Magpies must have found some rhythm, some semblance of life.

Pick One

But what is actually more important for the club at this point? A cup win or qualifying for the Champions League?

Of course, both are important. Both are wanted. Both are desired. One will give the club what it wants. The other will give the club what it needs. After all, Newcastle is a club that is meant to be going places and to go places the club needs cash.

Newcastle may not be in a position to get both. Perhaps the club will be fortunate to get either of the rewards in front of them, unless something changes quickly.

Newcastle United currently exists in one of the most frustrating places to be in English football. A form of PSR paralysis.

It is true that Newcastle United have a team that on any given day could beat most other teams. However, it is also true that on any given day that that same team can (and do) disappoint. And this appears to be the cycle the club are currently locked in.

This season has been a curious one. It began with poor performances, but excellent results. Since then there have been disappointing home defeats to Brighton and West Ham, disappointing draws at Goodison Park and Selhurst Park. Plenty of cup successes along the way too, of course. But also an embarrassing hammering at Brentford, followed by a scarcely believable 9 win run of games. And then, this. Whatever this current phase is right now.

Saturday’s performance against Manchester City was poor. Indefensible, actually. Incredibly frustrating for the fans, who actually went there believing that for once the team actually stood a chance of getting a positive result. How naive.

If anything sums up the state of paralysis Newcastle currently occupy it’s this… Newcastle couldn’t afford to sign new players in January due to the restrictive PSR situation. Meanwhile, opponents Manchester City, spent £180m to ensure that their ‘struggling’ team didn't miss out on a precious top 4 finish. One of those players, Omar Marmoush, scored a 13 minute first half hat trick.

So yes, the performance was not good. Yes, Howe needs to have a long hard think about how his team approaches games like this in the future. And yes the players should shoulder some blame too. But what more can this club do right now?

The club is competing with one arm tied behind its back and until we’re able to add depth and quality to the squad, it makes it very hard to apportion blame to the manager, the coaches or the players.

Newcastle’s current reality is simple; high highs and low lows.

The hope between now and the end of the season - win enough games to qualify for European competition next season, ideally the Champions League, and somehow find a way to win a cup final.

Perhaps we’ll get both, one or none.